I Can Predict Earthquakes Too!
How I make these predictions and the results for the first 90 days.
A Rebuttal to Claims of a Hoax
Archives (links for previous maps)
Rules (prediction criteria)
Hit List (list of possible hits)
Confirmed Hits (separate page)
List Of All Predictions To Date (separate page)
Errata Sheet (separate page)
The dates listed below are the local date (USA) the map was posted. The filenames reflect the UTC date/time of the map.
This is a list of unconfirmed 'hits'. As explained in the Rules, hits are not confirmed until at least 14-19 days.
As quakes reach verification age they will be removed from this list. Verified quakes will be listed on a separate page.
This list is not exhaustive and is subject to verification as per the Rules. Most recent at top.
Listings from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
For older quakes click here:
Confirmed Hits (separate page)
Each day (unless I decide to take a day off) I will publish a map of the Earth with 11 circles plotted where I make an educated wild ass guess where the next earthquakes might occur.
Each map will be good for five days (exactly) from the date of publication. The maps will be date/time stamped so there will be no question as to when the time frame starts.
Each circle represents a guess 1000km in radius. Due to the type of projection used, the scale varies across the map. Therefore the circles are only representative. The center of the circles will be given on each map in latitude and longitude.
Earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and up will be counted as hits. Aftershocks will be (reluctantly) counted as hits.
Quakes listed on the USGS NEIC latest worldwide quakes website will be used to help determine possible hits. There the quakes are posted as they occur and are reviewed. Because quake information can change as more data is gathered, a hit or miss will be finalized no less than two weeks after the event to allow the magnitude and location to stabilize. I will also use the NEIC searchable database to check for hits. Should there be a discrepency between the two websites, the information listed in the database will be used. Due to the two-week rule and that the database may be the more complete source, some hits may not be noted for some time.
Determination of the distance from the prediction circle's center to the quake's epicenter will be done by the following formula:
distance = (ACOS(SIN(lat1)*SIN(lat2)+COS(lat1)*COS(lat2)*COS(lon1-lon2)))*earthradius
where lat1/lon1 is the prediction circle center, lat2/lon2 is the earthquake epicenter, and earthradius uses the mean equatorial radius of 6378 km.
Should a situation arise where the rules require changes, those changes will be documented on the errata sheet and the change will be retroactive to all previously published maps.
If you have a problem with these rules, don't complain to me. If you do complain, don't expect a change or a response. These rules were determined after much contemplation and there are very good reasons why I chose them. When I have decided I've had enough fun with this project a final analysis will be published along with the reasoning behind the rules and how I decided where to put my circles.
Lastly, this project is just for fun. It should not be taken seriously and most definately should not be relied upon to make any sort of decision. If I 'predict' a quake in your location and you get hurt panicking over it, don't come whining to me.
|Special thanks to CK for their generosity and support.|